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Shared mobility - where now, where next?

Author(s): CREDS

Published: 2019-09-01

Publisher: Marsden, G., Anable, J., Bray, J., Seagriff, E. and Spurling, N.

The report sets out 20 recommendations which will support the evidence base around shared mobility, deliver more meaningful innovation trials and deliver a step change in the policy framework and incentives which sit around sharing mobility. Some policies are simple, such as making Highways England, whose networks carry around 32% of car miles each year, responsible for first monitoring vehicle occupancy and then facilitating a growth in it. There are significant network management as well as carbon benefits to be had. Others are more complex such as addressing the incentive system around multiple vehicles in a household or how to cross-subsidise greater provision of shared mobility in rural areas. There is no 'one-size fits all' approach but there are some actions which will have universal benefits such as redoubling efforts to reduce business miles driven in older private cars and to use the fleet assets of the public sector to reduce wastage and open up greater opportunities for shared access. This report comes with two clear warnings which make the adoption of policies to support sharing yet more important. First, we see potential headwinds of lower motoring costs for many, due to electrification. This creates a real risk that transport will continue to become less shared. In the absence of any corrective policies, this will lead to substantial traffic growth according to the Department for Transport's (DfT) own forecasts. Second, such growth risks being compounded by the adoption of increasingly automated vehicles. Early estimates by the DfT suggest that in a shared model, such innovations could reduce future traffic growth to just 5% by 2050. In a more individualised model the growth could be as much as 55%. In essence, unless we deliver on sharing, our creative capacity for transport innovation could simply support the delivery of a more individualised transport system which creates higher demand futures

Building decarbonisation transition pathways: initial reflections

Author(s): CREDS

Published: 2020-11-26

Publisher: Lowe, R. and Oreszczyn, T.

The problem of decarbonising heating in buildings has been studied for more than 20 years,1 but there is still no settled consensus on strategy or choice of technology. There is consensus that the problem requires analysis of the whole energy system. While there is currently much interest in the conversion of the gas grid to hydrogen as a route to heat decarbonisation, recent literature based on whole system analysis appears to indicate that heat pumps are likely to offer the cheapest decarbonisation option overall. Each new installation would achieve an immediate factor-of-three reduction in emissions, with the promise of close-to-zero emissions by 2030, as a consequence of a process that now appears unstoppable - the decarbonisation of electricity generation. Although many dwellings would also benefit from additional insulation to increase health and comfort, the overall role of insulation in reducing emissions due to heating in the UK is likely to be secondary. High levels of insulation are not essential to the deployment of heat pumps and are only likely to be cost effective in easy-to-treat properties. But technology choice is not an either-or question. Combinations of technology, such as hybrid heat pumps, and deployment of large heat pumps in district heating systems, offer obvious advantages. And even though the role of hydrogen as a vector for supplying heat to individual homes appears limited on overall cost grounds, hydrogen or hydrogen-derived fuels are likely to play a strategic role in providing backup for the electricity grid at multiple levels, in particular, for the very long-term energy storage that will be needed from about 2040. Sifting through the multiple combinations and configurations of technologies that are, and will become available over the coming 30 years will be an on-going activity. In this context, a key recent development is an understanding that technology selection has to involve an appreciation of the overall architecture of the energy system.