Navigating the Unknowns: Drivers and Projections for EV Battery Recycling

Abstract:

The Global Battery Alliance published this paper to inform policy makers and market actors across the battery value chain by identifying the main variables that influence the demand for EV battery recycling. Professor Paul Anderson, Principal Investigator of the Faraday Institution ReLiB project, provided deep insights into the market for this report. This paper informs policy makers and market actors across the battery value chain by identifying the main variables that influence the demand for EV battery recycling. The research methodology combines semi-structured interviews, literature review, expert knowledge, and proprietary data models. The analysis focused on lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries due to their dominance in the EV battery sector. Current recycling volumes are low and uncertainties around future markets, battery chemistries and recycling technologies are high, which constrains urgently needed investments. Well-informed policy makers and business leaders would be able to better navigate this evolving landscape and proactively optimise resource utilisation, minimise environmental impacts, and seize emerging business opportunities. The European Union (EU), where the regulatory environment is most mature, was set as the scope to evaluate if recycled content targets for lithium, nickel and cobalt in batteries can be met by processing the batteries that reach end-of-life locally in the EU. The modelling shows that supply may fall short of demand around the year 2036 when legal targets are set to increase, unless demand is met through imported recycled content, or recycled content from other applications. The sensitivity analysis shows that the most impactful drivers for the availability of recycled content relate to the lifespan of batteries, the weight and chemistry of future batteries, and trade in batteries as well as in second-hand cars. The outcomes of the model stress that accompanying policies and further investments will be required to achieve the circularity ambitions.

Publication Year:

2024

Publisher:

Global Battery Alliance

DOI:

No DOI minted

Author(s):

Petersen, I., Gode, P., Walker, A., Debrabander, F., Dubois, M., Neubauer, N., Melodia, B. and De Jager, S.